Kaspa has finally shaken off five months of downtrend. It jumped from a brief local dip of 5~6 ¢ on April 7 to a quick burst above 10 ¢ in late April, with the price now orbiting 0.09-0.10 USD, just beneath the 200-day and 100-week moving average. On-chain and price metrics say the coin is cheap, the crowd is still a bit nervous, and long-term holders (the patient types) are sitting tight. With a big network upgrade only days away, Kaspa is tip-toeing out of bear territory and eyeing its next growth spurt.

Price Trends & Technical Context

Higher lows and higher highs: Kaspa’s five-month down-channel cracked in mid-April when the price printed a higher low around 0.053 USD and then sprinted back above both the 50-DMA (0.077 USD) and the 100-DMA (0.088 USD), signaling strong short-term bullish momentum. Traders are now testing the 0.10 USD psychological range, a zone that twice rejected rallies this year. Classic sign the down-trend just flipped.

Comfortably above short-term averages: The price is ~16 % higher than its 50-day average and has also reclaimed comfortable above the 100-day moving average line.

Still battling the long-term ceiling: The 200-day and 100-week averages both sit around 11 ¢. A clean close above that level would shout, “The slump is officially over.”

Takeaway: Momentum is positive, yet the price has not outrun fundamentals. A weekly close above 0.11 USD would be the macro confirmation bulls are waiting for; dips into the high-0.07s continue to look like buy zones.

Is fresh money coming in?

Cost-basis steady: Realized price—our proxy for the aggregate dollar cost basis—has flattened, slipping only 1.1 % over 30 days. This indicates that net capital outflows have dried up, and fresh money is quietly absorbing supply.

Graduating coins: Coins bought five months ago just joined the “long-term” club. Their cost is now baked in as a higher long-term floor (LTH: STH ratio at an all-time 0.644). This indicates that coins purchased near last year’s peak are aging gracefully into stronger hands.

Capital inflow isn’t quite in place yet, but the leak is plugged, and the foundation is quietly rising. That’s precisely what an early-stage recovery is supposed to look like: steady hands buying time for momentum

traders to notice.

On-Chain Dynamics

The realized HODL Ratio is slipping. This metric compares the total wealth of short-term holders (STH) to long-term holders (LTH). It’s still in the 75th percentile—STH remains influential—but it fell almost 9 % last month, meaning coins are quietly migrating into stickier hands.

90-Day Coin-Days Destroyed drifting lower despite heavy trading volume. Ninety-day CDD continues to trend lower (-2.8 %), even as spot volume exploded during April’s rally. Old coins are not moving; there is no sign of widespread profit-taking by veterans.

The LTH: STH Cost-Basis Ratio at 0.644 is at an all-time high). Coins born near last summer’s peak have now aged past 155 days and entered the long-term holder cohort. As that ratio rises, the “true floor” price owned by conviction wallets rises with it—an underappreciated tail-wind.

Implication: Supply is tightening in slow motion. When rallies begin without old coins flooding the market, they often carry further than traders expect because there is little latent overhang.

Sentiment Pulse

Kaspa holders are still wearing bruises:

Net Unrealized P/L sits at -0.39, meaning most of the supply remains under water.

Only 52 % of coins are in profit, barely above breakeven.

Paradoxically, that’s a bullish cocktail—capitulation has happened, fear lingers, and yet the price is climbing. Seasoned crypto rallies are born in exactly this emotional vacuum.

Valuation & “Fair Price” Gauges

Every probabilistic model screams discount:

The MVRV Z-Score gradually climbed to the 7th percentile, indicating that the market price is still highly undervalued compared to the actual cost people paid for Kaspa.

Moreover, the Reserve Risk (5.9th percentile) signals conviction remains vastly higher than the market price implies.

Mining Metrics & Network Health

Reward-halving headwinds? Not so fast.

The hash rate is down 12 %, and difficulty is down 10 %. Some miners turned off rigs after Kaspa’s scheduled block-reward glide, a normal shakeout that lowers barriers for the stronger operators who remain.

Hash price is up nearly 50 %. With fewer hashes chasing the same reward pie, each hash earns more—relieving revenue pressure and reducing the chance of a miner-led sell-off.

Miners that endured the reward glide now earn more per hash than a month ago, reducing forced-sell risk and bolstering network security.

Closing Thoughts – Trading the Crescendo

Kaspa is entering the Crescendo upgrade with the following:

• Low valuation by any on-chain metric you can name.

• Strengthening structure—but still beneath the last “line of denial” around 0.11 USD.

• Healthy network economics that removes imminent miner liquidation from the worry list.

The stage is set for a classic “big-event shakeout or breakout.” Failures below 0.077 USD would warn that the accumulation phase still has chapters left, while daily closes above 0.11 USD could ignite new potential price discovery toward 0.14 USD.

In other words, the risk-reward skew is finally tilting upward. How gracefully the market dances through Crescendo will likely decide whether spring 2025 will be the start of Kaspa’s next expansionary cycle.