Kaspa's market has seen persistent price declines over the past month, with its price remaining below key short- and mid-term moving averages. This week, the price fell below both the 100-Week Moving Average (100WMA) and Long-Term Holder (LTH) Realized Price, marking a significant shift in market positioning. While sentiment and valuation indicators suggest some level of recovery, short-term holders (STH) continue to exert selling pressure, and capital inflows remain limited.

Price Trends

Over the past month, Kaspa has been struggling beneath several important short- and mid-term moving averages such as the 50DMA, 100DMA, and 200DMA. Initially, it remained above both the 100WMA and the Long-Term Holder (LTH) realized price, but that supportive footing eroded this week, as the market slid below both levels. The inability to maintain a cushion above these historically significant trend lines indicates a lack of near-term bullish momentum. On a purely technical basis, it suggests that the path of least resistance may remain sideways or downward until renewed demand pushes the price back above these critical moving averages.

Sentiment

Despite the downward price action, sentiment indicators suggest some early recovery signals:

Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) is at -11.23, which is at an extreme low (0.20 percentile). This indicates most investors are in a loss position.

Percent Supply in Profit (30-day MA) is at 0.2, meaning very few holders are in profit. However, it has increased by 25.24% in the past month, signaling improving conditions.

Reserve Risk is extremely low (0.30 percentile, Bull status)—long-term holders are not panic selling, which suggests confidence in future price appreciation.

While sentiment remains weak, some indicators point to potential stabilization if external factors do not add additional downward pressure.

Market Valuation & Price Fairness

Looking at metrics commonly used to gauge over- or undervaluation, Kaspa seems to be testing historically low territory. The MVRV Z-Score has been flirting with very low percentile levels, typically interpreted as a sign that the market is either nearing undervalued territory or could be preparing for an oversold bounce. However, if demand does not pick up, undervaluation alone is not enough to drive price appreciation.

Meanwhile, the Realized Price has shifted only modestly over the past month, indicating tepid inflows and outflows of capital. If the MVRV Z-Score’s pattern holds, it would suggest that any additional downward pressure may increasingly yield an environment ripe for a sentiment reversal—albeit not guaranteed.

Market Liquidity & Capital Flows

Capital appears cautious. While liquidity data is not the centerpiece of recent on-chain metrics, the mild monthly decrease in Realized Price and the lack of any strong upward movement in supply-in-profit metrics indicate that new capital hasn’t aggressively entered to support higher price levels. Sellers seem more numerous than buyers at key resistance points, effectively allowing the price to drift lower. As noted, the environment may be undervalued from a longer-term perspective, but the short-to-mid-term inflows needed to flip the trend have not been visible.

LTH vs. STH Dynamics

Long-Term Holders appear relatively steadfast, with certain measures of their behavior and cost basis ratios approaching historically high readings. The LTH:STH Cost Basis Ratio, for example, sits at an extreme percentile, indicating that long-term investors hold a significant share of the realized capital. However, short-term weakness becomes evident in how the price has fallen below the Short-Term Holder Realized Price. This flip to sub-STH Realized Price territory often corresponds with phases of heightened volatility—where short-term profit-takers might exert selling pressure or capitulate at lower levels, while long-term believers hold firm.

Mining Metrics & Network Health

On the surface, Kaspa’s network continues to show resilience. Hash Rate and Difficulty have been trending upward, reflecting continued miner participation despite reduced block rewards. Yet the fundamental picture of the network remains robust: an increasing Difficulty indicates continued investment in securing the chain, a signal of miner confidence even if immediate profitability is constrained.

Hash Price (-28.71%) is sharply down, reducing miner profitability.

Difficulty (+5.15%) continues to rise, suggesting that competition remains high despite lower miner incentives.

If price continues to fall, miners may be forced to liquidate more holdings, which could add to downside pressure in the short term.

Conclusion

Kaspa’s short-term price action remains weak, having slipped below key averages and the 100WMA/LTH Realized Price. At the same time, sentiment and valuation indicators hint at longer-term potential, suggesting the asset may be undervalued but still in need of a catalyst for a trend reversal. Strong miner engagement continues to reinforce network fundamentals, which could amplify any renewed price momentum beyond what bearish charts alone might imply. In the coming weeks, Kaspa’s ability to reclaim its moving averages will be a key factor in determining whether on-chain bullish signals can materialize into a sustained upward move.