Kaspa's market performance has been a mixed bag, with significant bearish trends in price but encouraging long-term holding behavior. While short-term volatility continues and the price remains strongly undervalued, the underlying fundamentals suggest that the network is gradually entering an accumulation phase, setting the stage for a potential rebound.

Price Analysis: Downtrend Continues, But Undervaluation Signals Appear

Kaspa's price currently sits at 0.09030 USD. Over the past two weeks, Kaspa’s price has been oscillating tightly around the LTH Realized Price and the 100WMA. This suggests that the market is testing a key support level, reinforcing the idea of a potential bottom forming. When prices consolidate around these critical moving averages, it often indicates a phase of re-accumulation before a more decisive move—either upwards or further downward depending on market conditions. If this level continues to hold, it could serve as a strong foundation for a future breakout.

However, valuation metrics like MVRV Z-Score (0.60 percentile) and Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (0.60 percentile) suggest that Kaspa is currently undervalued, hinting at a potential accumulation phase.

LTH vs. STH Dynamics: Decline in Old Coin Movements

A consistent trend observed over the past month is the gradual reduction of 90-Day Coin Days Destroyed (CDD 90) (-13.01% change in the past 30 days), which suggests that older coins are being moved less frequently. A continued decline in CDD 90 indicates that long-term holders are holding onto their assets rather than selling, reinforcing the idea of market accumulation. Additionally, Reserve Risk (1.20 percentile, -25.28%) suggests that LTHs remain confident and unwilling to sell at current price levels. These are bullish signals for Kaspa’s long-term sustainability, as they indicate a reduced likelihood of heavy sell pressure from investors who bought at lower prices.

Market Liquidity & Capital Flows: Weak Inflows Suggest Limited Immediate Upside

The Realized Price 30-Day Change (-4.59%, 2.22 percentile) shows that capital inflows into the network have been sluggish. Additionally, Kaspa's price has been oscillating closely around the LTH Realized Price (0.10205 USD), reinforcing the idea that the market is at a potential bottom but lacking immediate buying pressure.

Market Risk & Volatility: Uncertain, But Accumulation is Evident

Kaspa’s Realized HODL Ratio (87.50 percentile, +6.28%) remains in a neutral-to-bearish zone, meaning short-term holders are still present in the market, increasing the likelihood of price fluctuations. However, with LTHs accumulating, the risk of a deep selloff may be decreasing.

Conclusion: Cautiously Bullish in the Long Run, but Near-Term Weakness Persists

Kaspa's market is showing increasing signs of long-term accumulation, with undervaluation metrics and LTH dominance indicating strong holding behavior. However, price trends remain bearish and capital inflows are weak, suggesting further short-term uncertainty.

For investors, this could be a period of strategic accumulation, as undervaluation signals indicate potential for future upside. However, patience is required, as price recovery may take time. Again, if capital inflows improve and LTH confidence remains strong, Kaspa could be positioning itself for a bullish shift in the coming months.