Kaspa’s recent price dip has of the past two weeks left many investors questioning if this represents a final capitulation before recovery or if it's simply another step down in a prolonged bear phase. Yet, several on-chain and sentiment indicators hint we may be inching closer to a bottoming stage. Adding a spark of optimism, CoinMarketCap and CoinGecko recently listed KAS under its “Made in America” topic—an encouraging nod that coincided with Kaspa’s modest bounce. Below is a concise look at the key signals guiding Kaspa’s outlook.

Price Action & Market Valuation

Navigating the Recent Price Drop
Kaspa recently fell sharply from about 0.09 USD to a low near 0.056 USD on March 10 before bouncing back modestly to around 0.07 USD at the time of writing. Although the token remains below critical moving averages (e.g., 50DMA, 100DMA, and Realized Price), this swift bounce has renewed some investor hope. The recognition by CoinMarketCap—placing Kaspa under the “Made in America” banner—also seems to have sparked fresh market awareness.

Strong Signs of Undervaluation & Potential Recovery
Meanwhile, the MVRV Z‑Score—often used to estimate fair value—has dipped further to -0.95 (down from -0.91 last week and -0.79 a month ago), placing it at the 0.5th percentile historically. While such extremely low readings can point to deeper undervaluation and a possible capitulation zone, they also underscore lingering market pessimism. Historically, extreme MVRV Z‑Score lows have sometimes preceded cyclical bottoms, but the timing of any potential turnaround remains uncertain.

Kaspa’s current price is well below the Realized Price, reflecting that the average investor is underwater. However, indicators like Reserve Risk, currently very low, suggest many long-term holders remain confident, viewing this as an attractive accumulation zone. Historically, this mix—low prices coupled with solid underlying conviction—is characteristic of late-stage bear market conditions transitioning toward recovery.

Market Liquidity & Capital Flows

Trading Volume & Activity
One standout development is the sustained uptick in trading volume, indicating more active price discovery and liquidity. That heightened interest can amplify moves in either direction. So far, the short-term bounce since March 10th lows suggests at least some supportive buying interest.

Long-Term Holders Are Staying Quiet
Interestingly, despite higher trading volumes, the metric known as Coin Days Destroyed (CDD-90) has barely increased. This suggests that long-term holders aren’t selling aggressively and older coins remain largely dormant. This behavior typically occurs in transitional market periods—long-term holders wait patiently on the sidelines while short-term traders churn the market.

Limited New Capital Flow
Meanwhile, the Realized Price 30-Day Change stands at -5.93%, putting it near historical lows (1st percentile). This implies limited fresh money entering the market, as the overall network cost basis is falling. While that might not sound bullish intuitively, it can align with capitulation-like conditions. Historically, steep drops in realized price often occur near market bottoms—when most who plan to sell have already sold, and remaining holders are in it for the longer haul.

Long-Term vs. Short-Term Dynamics
Two key indicators reveal interesting trends in investor behavior:

LTH : STH Cost Basis Ratio is now at 0.529—the highest (100th percentile) in Kaspa’s history. Initially, Kaspa’s rapid price growth meant short-term holders had a proportionally much higher cost basis than long-term holders (since early adopters acquired KAS at ultra-low prices). Recently, however, this ratio’s climb reflects a rising LTH cost basis. This shows that long-term holders (LTH) have steadily accumulated at higher prices, narrowing the cost gap with short-term holders (STH). It demonstrates strong conviction among long-term investors despite falling prices.

Realized HODL Ratio has raised to 100th percentile—considered high—indicating short-term holders account for a large share of realized value. Currently, this ratio is labeled as “bearish” because an elevated STH presence can introduce more volatility. Short-term sentiment tends to be reactive, so large STH influence can pressure the market downward or upward with higher volatility swings. This further underscores the possibility that recent price swings have more to do with short-term speculative fervor than a mass exodus of long-term holders.

Sentiment Indicators

Market sentiment remains mixed. Metrics like the Realized HODL Ratio suggest heavy speculative activity, which can spur volatile price action. Meanwhile, Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) stands at a deeply negative value of about -0.83, signifying that a substantial portion of the supply is at a loss. 

Is the Market Near a Bottom?
Historically, when a large share of supply is underwater and indicators like MVRV and Reserve Risk hover near extreme lows, the conditions often correlate with capitulation or “value zones.” While no metric guarantees an immediate rebound, these confluences do tilt the odds toward eventual recovery—especially if broader market sentiment or liquidity continues to improve.

Conclusion: Patience Could Pay Off

Despite short-term challenges, including prices still trading below significant technical levels, Kaspa’s fundamental indicators hint that a bottoming process could be underway. The combination of increasing trading volumes, a steady long-term holder base, and improving sentiment metrics presents a scenario consistent with late-stage bear markets.

Adding to the positive undercurrents, Kaspa recently gained a spot in CoinMarketCap’s (and now CoinGecko) “Made in America” topic—a move that has coincided with renewed investor interest. While speculative traders continue to fuel volatility, patient long-term investors may see this period as an opportunity to accumulate. If liquidity and demand keep building, Kaspa could soon advance from undervalued territory to a more balanced valuation, potentially paving the way for upside moves in the near future.

Ultimately, although short-term price swings are likely to persist, Kaspa’s data-driven indicators point to a favorable outlook for those committed to a longer-term perspective as the market heads toward its next cycle.