Building on the resilience showcased in the past few weeks, Kaspa Network continues to display remarkable dynamism, further cementing its strength amidst market fluctuations. This week, the launch of the first episode of Kaspa’s Binance Live series, which attracted an impressive 82,000 views, served as a significant catalyst. It boosted daily trading volumes nearly fourfold, from around 300 million UTXO to approximately 1.2 billion UTXO. This surge in trading volume highlights an escalation in market interest and activity, reflecting the growing confidence in Kaspa's future prospects. Moreover, the distribution phase mentioned last week may have begun to taper off, indicating a possible transition towards a new accumulation phase, which could pave the way for considerable upside in the near future.

Volume Surge from Binance Live lead to Shifted Holder Dynamics

The aftereffects of the Binance Live event have particularly influenced two key on-chain metrics: the Realized HODL Ratio (RHODL) and the 90-Day Coin Days Destroyed (CDD).

The RHODL ratio has sharply increased from the 14.80th percentile last week to the 96.30th percentile. This significant rise in the RHODL ratio illustrates a considerable influx of short-term traders into the market following the successful Binance Live spotlight. Such a surge in short-term holder activity typically indicates heightened trading and liquidity, often accompanied by volatility and short-term uncertainty.

Similarly, the surge in trading volume has led to a slight increase in the 90-day CDD metric compared to last week. Typically, a rise in the 90-day CDD suggests increased distribution from long-term holders. However, upon closer examination, we found that the daily CDD dropped shortly after the initial spike, indicating that the movement of older coins has stabilized. Last week's mention of a potential distribution phase characterized by long-term holders gradually liquidating positions appears to be tapering off. This stabilization indicates that the market may have begun to transition into a new accumulation phase, positioning Kaspa for a promising upside in the near future.

Balanced Valuation with Positive Long-term Outlook

The MVRV Z-Score, currently at the 20.60 percentile, maintains a fair market valuation, with no significant overheating or undervaluation detected. This neutral-bull stance complements the market's overall stability despite the trading frenzy.

The Reserve Risk metric, at a low 1.80 percentile with a 30-day change of -16.02%, signals a solid bullish sentiment. Long-term holders are disinclined to sell at these levels, providing a strong foundation of confidence for sustained upward movement.

Both the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) ratio at the 17.80 percentile and the Percent Supply in Profit at the 45.30 percentile reveal a cautious yet optimistic market stance. Almost three-quarters of the supply remains profitable, reinforcing market stability without undue speculative pressure.

Price Metrics Demonstrate Solid Ground for Growth

Kaspa's price has maintained strong support near the 200DMA, reflecting an overarching bullish sentiment. The spreads between Kaspa's current price and various moving averages, notably the 200DMA and 100WMA, indicate a healthy market foundation for potential growth.

Conclusion

Kaspa Network’s performance this week has built upon the robust recovery noted in the previous weeks. The Binance Live event significantly boosted trading volumes, providing a short-term market activity and interest boost. Despite an initial spike in short-term holder dominance, the market fundamentals remain strong, with critical metrics like Reserve Risk and long-term holder investment costs reinforcing a bullish sentiment. As Kaspa potentially transitions from a distribution to an accumulation phase, the market appears well-positioned for upward momentum.