Kaspa has recently settled around 0.08 USD following a swift rebound from its long-term holder (LTH) realized price near 0.06 USD. This quick bounce suggests strong underlying demand, especially from those who view Kaspa’s current level as a potential value zone. Yet, the spot price remains below several key moving averages, hinting that near-term momentum is still searching for solid footing.

Despite these mixed signals, the on-chain backdrop leans optimistic. Several valuation metrics point to conditions often associated with undervalued or early-stage recoveries. Below, we break down some core aspects shaping Kaspa’s market outlook.

Price Trend & Momentum

Kaspa’s price hovers at 0.08009 USD, under the 50-day moving average (around 0.087 USD) and well below the 100- and 200-day averages (spanning the low- to mid-0.10s USD). Being beneath these thresholds typically underscores a degree of short-term bearishness. However, the recent bounce two weeks ago from near 0.06 USD indicates robust buying interest at lower levels, implying that any deeper dips could be viewed as opportunities by long-term participants.

In the very short term, reclaiming the 50-day moving average near 0.087 USD and surpassing the realized price at roughly 0.0877 USD would be a significant step. That zone is shaping up to be the next decisive technical test.

LTH vs. STH Dynamics

The ongoing tug-of-war between long-term (LTH) and short-term (STH) holders is evident. While short-term holders have experienced a notable drawdown—reflected in Kaspa’s spot price trading below STH realized price—long-term holders are still in profit, with the market well above their realized price near 0.06 USD.

Realized HODL Ratio (Standout Metric)

Among this week’s dashboard, the Realized HODL Ratio stands out for the magnitude of its shift. It dropped from 100th percentile levels down to around the 70th percentile over the last two weeks. At elevated levels, this ratio indicates that short-term holders have a larger portion of the network’s realized cap versus long-term holders—often a sign of heightened speculative activity.

The subsequent cooling down to the 70th percentile suggests that short-term realized value has receded, while long-term holders’ share of the total realized value now exerts a relatively larger influence. This shift can be interpreted as a normalization of the market structure:

• Fewer short-term speculators dominating realized value.

• Long-term holders stepping back into a position of more pronounced influence, typically a healthy sign for market stability.

Overall, the Realized HODL Ratio’s decline may signal that recent short-term selling pressure or profit-taking has run its course. If this metric continues trending away from extreme levels, it could pave the way for a steadier price foundation.

90-Days Coin Days Destroyed (CDD-90)

Over the past two weeks, CDD-90 has cooled down and now sits around the 58th percentile, a moderate position signaling that older coins aren’t being moved en masse. When CDD-90 drops, it typically means long-term holders are not actively distributing their holdings—and thus remain confident about Kaspa’s long-range potential.

Put differently, if “strong hands” believed the current market environment to be risky or overvalued, we might see a spike in older coin transfers. Instead, the subdued activity by these coins supports the notion that LTH, on balance, continue to hold rather than sell.

Taken together, LTH remain undeterred, and any short-term volatility may continue to be absorbed by these patient holders.

Market Valuation & Price Fairness

From a valuation perspective, Kaspa remain undervalued for a prolonged stretch, according to multiple on-chain indicators:

• MVRV Z-Score remains very low but has risen significantly in the two weeks—a sign that while the market may still be “cheap,” it’s beginning to correct upward.

• Reserve Risk at a low percentile further underpins a long-term bullish viewpoint, indicating that LTH are not aggressively offloading their holdings despite the recent price consolidation.

These and other metrics (like the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss ratio) imply that Kaspa has spent considerable time in territory historically associated with undervaluation.

Capital Flows

One critical factor reinforcing this extended undervaluation is lukewarm capital inflows. The realized price 30-day change remains negative, signaling limited new capital entering the network. However, as overall sentiment tilts more positive and on-chain metrics stabilize or improve, there is potential for additional investment interest. A convincing break above key resistance levels (e.g., the 50-day moving average) could incentivize sidelined capital to flow in, supporting higher price levels.

Moreover, we haven’t witnessed a major outflow or panic distribution from longstanding market participants. The lack of significant distribution by LTH (as implied by low CDD-90) further confirms that the vast majority of circulating coins remain off the market. Should capital inflows pick up, it could accelerate price discovery, especially given the constrained supply from strong hands.

Sentiment

Sentiment remains guarded but appears to be improving as indicated by a low yet rising measure of supply in profit. In typical market cycles, when very few coins sit in profit, selling pressure can be limited; the moment price shows any upward traction, it can attract renewed interest, fueling positive momentum.

Conclusion

Kaspa finds itself at a pivotal point: the rapid bounce from 0.06 USD underscores deep long-term demand, reflecting long-term holders’ conviction. Despite subpar performance against key moving averages, this foundational strength—combined with cooling speculative behavior (as seen in the Realized HODL Ratio) and tempered distribution by LTH—creates a compelling case for gradual recovery.

Short-term volatility may continue as the market tests overhead resistance around the mid-0.08s USD. Near-term, Kaspa must reclaim pivotal price levels near 0.087–0.088 USD (50MDA) for more robust upside momentum. However, the strengthening long-term holder base and improving on-chain valuation signals are building a constructive foundation. Should Kaspa reclaim its 50-day moving average and remain comfortably above long-term holder cost basis, it would bolster the bullish case and potentially set the stage for a more robust recovery.