In the past three weeks, Kaspa has experienced significant volatility, marked by a peak due to potential Binance listing rumors at ~0.083 USD, a subsequent sharp decline to ~0.053 USD from withdrawal issues at the MEXC exchange, and a quick and strong rebound to the mid-0.07 USD range. It pushed above its 50-day moving average (50-DMA) for the first time since January, breaking a descending trendline and indicating a shift in market momentum.

This market review delves into the recent price trends, technical indicators, and market sentiments that define Kaspa's current position. It evaluates short-term momentum shifts, the potential impact of the realized price, and broader market conditions to forecast Kaspa's trajectory in the context of its upcoming Crescendo upgrade and general cryptocurrency trends.

Price Trends

Short-Term Momentum: Kaspa's recent rebound to about 0.077 USD indicates a slight rise above its 50-DMA. This upward move not only represents a break from the previous descending trendline but also signifies a key bullish signal, suggesting the end of a "lower highs" pattern. The closing above the 50-DMA is particularly telling, as it traditionally suggests that bullish sentiment is taking hold, further supported by the overall positive momentum from Bitcoin's recent gains.

Realized Price: The current trading price is just under the realized price of 0.0857 USD. Historically, when Kaspa surpasses its realized price on a closing basis, it often signals the start of a bullish market phase, boosting investor confidence.

Price Fairness: Despite the recovery, the MVRV Z-Score, currently at 4.3 percentile, suggests that Kaspa remains undervalued, indicating that the market price is trading below its fair value.

Kaspa's position above the 50-DMA, with resistance around the 0.08 USD mark, reinforces a bullish narrative. The upcoming Crescendo upgrade could be crucial in sustaining this momentum. However, surpassing the realized price must confirm a stronger bull market phase and attract fresh capital.

Market Sentiment: Long-Term Holders Show Resilience

Sentiment indicators like the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss and Percent Supply in Profit reveal a cautiously optimistic environment. The negative Net Unrealized Profit/Loss ratio at -0.61 places many investors at a slight loss or near break-even, a potential precursor to upward price movements as sentiment improves.

Supply in Profit: Currently, about 48.6% of Kaspa coins are in profit, indicating that a majority of holders are either breaking even or at a loss, which could dampen any immediate selling pressure.

Long-Term Confidence: Low Reserve Risk suggests that long-term holders are unfazed by recent price dips, likely helping to stabilize the price by limiting sell-offs.

Weakened Short-Term Dominance: Over the past month, we observed a sharp decline in the Realized HODL Ratio, which points to a decrease in short-term speculation. This may help focus the market on longer-term value..

90-Day Coin Days Destroyed (CDD90): This metric shows reduced movement of older coins, further supporting the stability of long-term holders.

Capital Inflow Dynamics

Capital flows have shown signs of increment, aligning with the overall improvement in market conditions. The entry of fresh capital is critical as it provides the financial fuel for sustained price movements. Notably, the Realized Price 30-Day Change—a proxy for measuring the rate of capital inflows and outflows—has eased to -2.47%, compared to a range of -5% to -6% in the previous month. Although still negative, this improvement suggests that new investments may enter these lower levels in anticipation of long-term growth. Additionally, a rise in trading volume over the past three weeks further signals a positive market momentum.

Looking Ahead

Kaspa finds itself in a critical zone, hovering between a revived short-term uptrend and needing to reclaim higher moving averages (notably the 100-DMA and the realized price). Many on-chain and sentiment indicators point to possible undervaluation and early-stage bullish dynamics, but confirmation hinges on pushing above the 0.085–0.10 USD  region.

The Crescendo upgrade and broader market conditions (particularly Bitcoin's performance) will likely shape Kaspa's next moves. Clearing resistance and drawing new capital could transform today's cautious optimism into a more sustainable rally. For now, the market awaits a definitive break above the notable technical and on-chain thresholds.