Over the past month, Kaspa’s market has been grinding through a phase of undervaluation, with price metrics showing weakness while long-term holders (LTH) maintain strong conviction. Despite a sluggish price trend, the underlying fundamentals hint at potential accumulation rather than outright capitulation. The key question now: Is the market preparing for a recovery, or will weakness persist?

Sentiment: Signs of Confidence Despite Short-Term Pain

While Kaspa’s price action remains under pressure, sentiment indicators suggest improving confidence. The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss Ratio (-8.26, +44.72%) has surged, showing a shift from deep pessimism toward a more neutral stance. Similarly, the Reserve Risk (3.70 percentile, +5.31%) indicates that long-term holders are not aggressively selling, suggesting strong conviction in future price potential.

However, not all sentiment indicators are aligned. The Percent Supply in Profit (4.80 percentile, -33.32%) remains extremely low, reflecting the reality that most investors are still underwater. This means that while long-term holders are unfazed, broader market participants have yet to regain confidence.

Market Valuation & Price Fairness: Deep Undervaluation Signals Potential Upside

Kaspa is currently trading below multiple key valuation benchmarks, reinforcing its undervalued status. The MVRV Z-Score (0.10 percentile, +30.20%) suggests that the market is deeply undervalued relative to historical fair value. Additionally, the current price $0.11514 USD is below the Realized Price of 0.14585 USD, which represents the average price investors actually paid for their coins. When the market price falls below this level, it’s a strong signal that the asset is undervalued, as most holders are currently at a loss.

That said, undervaluation alone isn’t enough to spark a rally—it requires capital inflows, which remain weak. The Realized Price 30-Day Change (-3.69%) reflects mild capital outflows rather than aggressive accumulation. Until stronger buying pressure emerges, Kaspa may struggle to break out of this undervaluation zone.

LTH vs. STH Dynamics: Long-Term Holders Stand Firm, While Short-Term Confidence Lags

The balance between long-term holders (LTH) and short-term holders (STH) is a key factor in market direction. Currently, LTHs remain in control:

The LTH:STH Cost Basis Ratio (100 percentile, +10.24%) indicates that long-term investors have a stronger cost basis than short-term holders, reinforcing their dominant position.

The Reserve Risk remains low, meaning long-term investors are not showing signs of selling pressure.

On the other hand, short-term holders are struggling:

The Short-Term Holder (STH) Realized Price ($0.14911) is significantly above the current price, meaning most recent buyers are sitting at a loss.

The Realized HODL Ratio (90 percentile, -35.86%) suggests that short-term investors have weakened in influence.

The takeaway? Long-term holders are accumulating, but short-term traders are not yet convinced, leaving the market in a slow grind rather than a breakout scenario.

Price Trends: Weak in the Short Term, but Long-Term Structure Holds

Kaspa’s price remains below key moving averages, reflecting near-term weakness:

Below the 50DMA ($0.12573), 100DMA ($0.13500), and 200DMA ($0.14768) → All pointing to continued bearish momentum.

Above the 100WMA ($0.10219) → Long-term support remains intact, suggesting a structural bull case still exists.

In simple terms, the short-term downtrend is still in play, but long-term holders are defending a key floor, making this more of an accumulation phase rather than a breakdown scenario.

Mining Metrics & Network Health: Stability Despite Lower Rewards

Kaspa’s mining landscape is experiencing expected revenue declines due to its smooth block reward reduction. The 30-day mining revenue in USD is down 15.99%, but this is a natural consequence of Kaspa’s emission schedule rather than a sign of network distress.

More data shows that the network remains secure:

Hash Rate (1464.91 PH/s, +0.31%) and Difficulty (+2.35%) remain stable, meaning miners are continuing operations without significant exits.

This suggests that while mining profitability is gradually decreasing due to Kaspa’s designed emission model, the network remains strong, and miners are still committed.

Final Thoughts: Kaspa Holds Strong Foundations for Future Growth

Kaspa’s market may be experiencing short-term weakness, but the underlying fundamentals remain solid. Long-term holders continue to accumulate, valuation metrics point to an undervalued asset, and the network remains stable despite expected mining revenue declines.

While immediate upside momentum is lacking, the current phase presents an opportunity for patient investors who recognize the long-term potential. As confidence rebuilds and market conditions improve, Kaspa is well-positioned for future growth. With strong support from its community and a robust network, a recovery could unfold once broader market participation increases.