In our continued commitment to providing insightful, data-driven content on the Kaspa cryptocurrency market, KASmedia is thrilled to announce the launch of the Kaspa Market Dashboard.

In the constantly evolving world of cryptocurrency, data-driven insights have become indispensable tools for investors, developers, and communities at large. As the Kaspa ecosystem continues to flourish, understanding the complexity of the rapidly expanding Kaspa markets has become a pressing issue. Our new tool is specifically designed to cater to Kaspa, bringing the most vital market information to investors in a comprehensive and digestible format.

What is the Kaspa Market Dashboard

The Kaspa Market Dashboard is a data-based tool designed to provide an in-depth view of the Kaspa market. It is released weekly with an accompanying market summary. Below, you can find the latest and current dashboard.

The dashboard currently features sixteen on-chain and price metrics, including Realized HODL Ratio, MVRV Z-Score, Moving Averages, Mayer Multiple, and Realized Price, among others listed below. This selection represents the most crucial and widely-used metrics in the industry.

However, our vision for the Kaspa Market Dashboard transcends its current capabilities. We aspire to enhance our offerings by incorporating metrics related to derivatives, mining, fund flows, macroeconomic factors, and correlation data, thus providing a more comprehensive understanding of Kaspa’s market dynamics, trends, and potential. Additionally, we plan to provide real-time interactive charts for monitoring selected market indicators, further augmenting the depth and usability of our platform.

Market Summary

Since Kaspa began trading publicly approximately two years ago, its price has demonstrated strong upward momentum, aligning with the power-law and Stock-to-Flow (S2F) price growth model observed in Bitcoin. A detailed analysis of this will be released later this month. This growth momentum is evident in the Kaspa Market Dashboard's price indicators, with the price consistently surpassing key moving averages. Additionally, both long-term and short-term holders are currently in profit based on realized price metrics, indicating positive market sentiment and reinforcing the robust bullish trend observed in Kaspa's price trajectory.

Recent Price Movement

During the past two weeks, the price of Kaspa has experienced a remarkable surge, reaching a peak of 19 cents. This surge follows a correction and a period of consolidation, highlighting a substantial increase in value. It underscores Kaspa's resilience and the continued interest from investors, which indicates a stable upward trajectory. This recent price ascent showcases the market's rebound from short-term bearish trends, with capital inflows indicating investor eagerness to seize opportunities for price readjustment.

Cooling of Key On-Chain Indicators

While we are experiencing a consolidation period, various key on-chain indicators, such as the Realized HODL Ratio and MVRV Z-Score, have cooled off in the past three days. The Realized HODL Ratio, currently at the 96.8% percentile, has decreased slightly, suggesting that the influx of new investments has stabilized after a significant spike. This moderation indicates a slowdown in market exuberance and a potential balance being achieved between short-term speculators and long-term holders. Similarly, the MVRV Z-Score, at the 46.4% percentile, has eased from its recent highs, suggesting that Kaspa is presently fairly valued, without entering an over-inflated speculative bubble. The cooling off of these indicators suggests a healthy period of market consolidation, allowing the market to digest recent gains before potentially initiating the next upward leg.

Growing Market Confidence

Overall, the current market status for Kaspa is positive:

Investor Confidence - The Reserve Risk indicator, at a low 7.9% percentile, has shown a steady rise, indicating growing confidence among investors who are willing to undertake increased risks. This low value, combined with an upward trend, underscores a strong belief in the long-term growth prospects of Kaspa.

Investor Profitability and Sentiment - The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) Ratio and Percent Supply in Profit metrics both show significant increases, with NUPL rising by 57% and Percent Supply in Profit up by 43.13%. These increases suggest that more Kaspa investors hold positions that are profitable compared to their acquisition costs, indicating an overall positive sentiment. Additionally, both indicators reside in mid-range percentiles, revealing that while a substantial number of investors are in profit, the market sentiment is balanced and not at an extreme. This moderate optimism implies confidence among investors without the risk of imminent sell-offs due to overvaluation, indicating room for further growth.

Confidence Among Long-Term Holders (LTH) - Metrics like the 90-Day Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) and LTH:STH Cost Basis Ratio underline growing confidence among long-term holders. The 90-Day CDD, at 34.2% percentile, suggests minimal coin movement by long-term holders, indicating they are not over-selling and reflecting trust in Kaspa’s future price potential. Concurrently, the upward trend in LTH Cost Basis reveals that investors who entered the market during the price surge in February are maintaining their positions, indicating a robust belief in the market's potential.

Capital Inflows - The Realized Price 30-Day Change, up by 8.02%, reflects substantial capital inflows into Kaspa, often a precursor to significant price movements. This robust capital influx indicates growing investor confidence and is usually a bullish sign.

Fair Valuation - Market valuation indicators such as the MVRV and Mayer Multiple suggest that Kaspa is not overvalued. The MVRV, having moved from undervalued to fairly valued at the 46.4% percentile, and the Mayer Multiple at the 15th percentile, within the undervalued range. Collectively, these indicators suggest a cautiously optimistic sentiment among investors, indicating that Kaspa still possesses growth potential and is not ensnared in a speculative bubble.

In summary, the Kaspa market currently exhibits durable positive sentiment and investor confidence, facilitated by robust profitability metrics and significant capital inflows. The cooling off of certain indicators, while maintaining an overall upward trend, signals a consolidation phase that paves the way for future growth. With long-term holders showing unwavering conviction and strategic new investments, the Kaspa market appears poised for sustainable growth, backed by strong fundamental and on-chain indicators. Investors should, however, remain cautious and allow the market to solidify its gains before expecting further upward movements.

A Deep Dive into the Market Indicators

Realized HODL Ratio

The Realized HODL Ratio helps us assess the behavior of long-term holders (HODLers) versus short-term traders. It’s particularly useful to highlight whether long-term investors (HODLers) are holding or selling. It compares the value of cryptocurrency held for less than 1 week to that held for 1-2 years. This ratio is adjusted to account for how long the cryptocurrency has been in the market overall. A high ratio means more long-term holders are selling, possibly signaling a market top, while a low ratio suggests they're holding onto their assets, possibly indicating a market bottom.

MVRV Z-Score

MVRV Z-Score is a measure of how overvalued or undervalued Kaspa might be with respect to its "fair value." It is calculated by comparing the current market valuation to its realized valuation, then normalizes this difference using the market's volatility. e.g., (market cap – realized cap) / std (market cap). When market value significantly exceeds realized value (high MVRV Z-Score), it signals a market top where Kaspa is overvalued. Conversely, when the market value is significantly lower than the realized value (low MVRV Z-Score), it may signal a market bottom where Kaspa is undervalued.

Reserve Risk

Reserve Risk is an indicator that measures the confidence of long-term Kaspa holders relative to the current Kaspa price. It looks at the opportunity cost for Kaspa holders when they sell their Kaspa rather than holding them, computed as market price / HODL Bank (a numerical representation of long-term holder’s conviction). Low Reserve Risk indicates that HODLers have a lot of faith in Kaspa future value. When the confidence is high and the price is low, the reserve risk is low, signaling a good time to invest. Understanding Reserve Risk can provide invaluable insight into market trends which can guide investment decisions.

90-Days Coin Days Destroyed

When 1 unit of Kaspa is not spent for a day, a ‘coin day’ is created. If you then spend that Kaspa, the 1 coin day is considered "destroyed". The 90-Days Coin Days Destroyed metric is the sum of coin days that have been destroyed over 90 days. This index is supply adjusted, making it comparable across different time periods, regardless of the total supply of the coins in that period. The importance of this metric is that it can provide insight about the behavior of long-term coin holders - a higher number of Coin Days Destroyed could indicate that long-term holders are moving their coins. This usually signals significant market activity. Conversely, low levels of coin days destroyed imply that most trading activity is from newer, short-term traders.

STH:LTH Costs Basis Ratio

Kaspa LTH:STH costs basis ratio refers to the ratio of long-term holders (LTH) to short-term holders (STH) based on the cost basis of their holdings. This index signals market sentiment, and is historically one of the most accurate signals for Bitcoin’s market cycle. When the ratio is high, it means that the recent buyers (short-term holders) are accounting for a larger share of the total cost basis, suggesting optimism as more people are buying into the market. When the ratio is low, it indicates that the market is being dominated by long-term holders, which may signal caution.

Net Unrealized Profit Loss Ratio

If you bought some Kaspa and the price has risen since then, you have an unrealized profit. If the price falls below what you paid, you'll be at an unrealized loss. The Net Unrealized Profit Loss Ratio measures the total USD of coins in the network that are currently in a state of profit or loss, assessing the overall investment performance of Kaspa holders. If the ratio is positive, that implies that many people are in profit and have not yet sold their coins, which could indicate confidence in further price increases. On the other hand, a negative ratio could suggest that most holders are at a loss or have minimal profits, perhaps pointing to a bearish market sentiment.

Percent Supply in Profit 30-Day MA

Percent Supply in Profit 30-Day MA is a metric that shows the percentage of the total supply of Kaspa that is currently in a state of profit, measured by a 30-day moving average (MA). The idea behind this metric is to assess the financial health of the Kaspa network and its participants.

Realized Price 30-Day Change

This is the percentage change of price at which Kaspa changed hands over the past 30 days. Realized Price 30-Day Change reflects a more accurate representation of Kaspa price by focusing on the consensus value among those who have transacted in the recent past. In addition, the 30-day change in realized price is also a useful proxy for tracking the rate of capital inflows and outflows — whether the cost basis is rising or falling.

Moving Averages

The average price of Kaspa over a defined span of time is known as Kaspa moving averages. This provides valuable insights into Kaspa price trends and market sentiment over different timeframes, smoothing out short-term fluctuations and volatility. On our dashboard, you can find the moving average for the preceding 50 days, 100 days, 200 days, and 100 weeks. When Kaspa's price moves above these averages, it is generally considered a bullish sign; when it moves below, it is considered bearish.

Mayer Multiple

The Mayer Multiple is the ratio between Kaspa's price and its 200-day moving average. The 200-day MA is a widely recognized indicator for determining macro bullish or bearish trends. The Mayer Multiple serves as a critical measure to evaluate how far the Kaspa price deviates from its long-term average, offering significant assistance in identifying states of overbought or oversold conditions. Hence, a high Mayer Multiple suggests that Kaspa may be overpriced, while a low multiple could suggest a buying opportunity.

Realized Price

The Realized Price is the average price at which all existing Kaspas were last transacted. Unlike the current trading price, which is determined by recent buy/sell actions, the realized price takes into account historical transactions, providing a fuller picture of the market's past behavior and value changes.

STH Realized Price and LTH Realized Price

Short-Term Holder (STH) Realized Price refers to the average price at which all Kaspas held by short-term investors were last transacted. It gives an insightful look into the market activity of investors who typically hold assets for less time, thereby reflecting the rapid response to market shifts.

Long-Term Holder (LTH) Realized Price calculates the average price at which all Kaspas held by long-term investors were last moved. It illustrates the activity of investors who generally hold onto their Kaspa for longer periods, providing insight into long-term market confidence and stability.

How to Interpret Each Indicator

Each market indicator in the Dashboard yields a signal towards the market condition, which falls into either Bull, Bull Neutral, Neutral, Bear Neutral, or Bear. By observing these signals collectively, we can gain insight into the market's momentum. Below, we'll explain how different kinds of indicators are interpreted to generate bull/bear signals.

On-chain Indicators

Most on-chain indicators are cyclical and are tied to direct factors that could influence Kaspa's market price. For example, the Realized HODL Ratio and Reserve Risk measure investor confidence, Coin Days Destroyed suggests significant long-term investor behavior, and the Net Unrealized Profit Loss Ratio and Percent Supply in Profit 30-Day MA measure Kaspa investor's investment performance. Notably, on-chain indicators prove significantly more valuable when they reach extreme levels, particularly when there's an anticipation that the market is adhering to historical cycles and established patterns.

For these indicators, we apply a percentile analysis that compares the current indicator value against its historical data points. We start by establishing a basic percentile structure and then fine-tune the thresholds for each metric based on historical performance. Additionally, we exclude initial data points marked by significant volatility to ensure a more precise analysis.

Price Indicators

The Mayer Multiple serves as another cyclical indicator, indicating how much Kaspa's price deviates from its long-term consensus valuation. We utilized the percentile analysis mentioned earlier.

When considering other price indicators, it's relatively straightforward to compare the current price with a particular indicator. Is the price higher than the moving average or the Kaspa holder's realized price? If yes, it signals bullish sentiment; if not, it leans towards bearish.

Join the Conversation

To maximize the value of our dashboard to our subscribers, we encourage you to engage and provide us feedback. Your input is vital as we strive to continually improve this tool and adapt it to meet the needs of the Kaspa community. What specific features would you like to see in the Kaspa Market Dashboard? Share your thoughts in the comments below!

KASmedia is proud to spearhead the development of this critical Kaspa-focused tool. We believe that our new Market Dashboard will prove to be an invaluable asset to all those interested in the Kaspa market. Stay tuned to KASmedia. Subscribe today and be part of Kaspa's promising journey.

Announcing the Launch of Kaspa Market Dashboard: Your Comprehensive Guide to Kaspa Market Analysis

Shay Shao

Lead Data Analyst